First National Preventive Health Research Programme  YELP Holistic First Business Plan    YELP Holistic First Business Plan Defined Terms   SWOT Analysis   Executive Summary   Deliverables And Costs   Snapshot Page To 10 Benchmark Techniques   Defined Terms for Five YELP Business Plans

Second National Preventive Health Research Programme      Bohemian Teenagers Arts Assistance Programme

First BTAAP Business Plan      Bohemian Teenagers Show Choir Programme        Defined Terms BTSCP

Second BTAAP Business Plan    Bohemian Teenagers Symphony Orchestras Programme    Defined Terms - Bohemian Teenager Symphony Orchestra Programme

Third BTAAP Business Plan    Bohemian Teenager Ballet & Modern Dance Programme        Defined Terms BTB&MDCP

18(a).      Forecasting Economic Return On YELP Capex from Propagating YELP to >100,000 Participants across Australia by end-2015

The YELP Holistic First Business Plan contends that the Adverse Effects, namely Fifteen Problems, which include the Taskforce's Three Public Health Risks, besetting Australia's 22m Human Brownfield Infrastructure produce Adverse Costs upon the Australian economy which exceed $155 billion annually.

Cashflow and Capex are fundamental coordinates to lending to, or investing equity in, a Greenfield or Brownfield  infrastructure project.  YELP is akin to a Brownfield infrastructure project because Australia's 22m Human Brownfield Infrastructure is already built.  Many of the human infrastructure presently have low, Nil or negative net productivity and some of those would benefit from Capex via YELP to improve QOL, Increase Productivity and achieve Fifteen Benefits Of Materially Altered Lifestyle. 

The cost of the Pilot, including the Preparatory Research Programme and the Primary Research Programme, is Capex to refurbish a Pilot Sample of 5,200 Human Brownfield Infrastructure with the goal to improve the Pilot Sample's long term Cashflow.  The YELP Holistic 'Hub' First Business Plan entails extrapolating results from the Pilot Sample, using Return On YELP Capex Software, to determine the Economic Return On YELP Capex in the Base Case Financial Model to inter alia: 

A.         test the Hypothesis

B.         forecast how much Propagating YELP to a further 95,000 Human Brownfield Infrastructure across Australia by end-2015, estimated in Propagation Forecasts And Targets, will improve Cashflow by -

            *           reducing fiscal costs on the Fifteen Problems; and       

*           Increasing Productivity, including Increased Tax Contributions and Extending Labour Force Participation

As explained in Section 16.(c) converting an Obese and lethargic Interested Adult into a committed Recreational Road Cyclist, Kayaker, Ocean Swimmer or Bushwalker  Participant in a LDRREG would weigh materially higher in Return On YELP Capex Software than an Interested Adult who became a Participant in a RREA who isn't overweight, isn't overly stressed and/or doesn't Abuse Recreational Drugs.  

Consequently, Section 16.(c) proposes that 25 of the 50 Volunteers be drawn from amongst the Disadvantaged and marginalised.  Section 16.(c) also refers to notable humanitarians who have a lifetime of experience working with the Marginalised who would be approached to source 25 Volunteers from amongst the Disadvantaged.

The Research Programme Budget contains a $100,000 provision to develop Return On YELP Capex Software to quantify the Economic Return On YELP Capex in order to identify which Human Brownfield Infrastructure which are presently leading a Sedentary Lifestyle and afflicted by at least one of the the Taskforce's Three Public Health Risks that RECs should target to -

a)         maximise YELP  SPV's Economic Return On YELP Capex; and

b)         maximise the inroad into the >$155b annual Adverse Costs to the Australian economy's bottom line of the Fifteen Problems which include the Taskforce's Three Public Health Risks.

Accordingly, to achieve this goal, responses from the following Pilot reports from the Pilot Sample 5,200 Participants (Abled, Disabled and Disadvantaged) will feed into Return On YELP Capex Software:

*           Four Hypothesis Test Reports from the 50 Volunteers in the Primary Research Programme.

*           and Participant Testimonial and Participant Progress Reports from the Pilot Sample of 5,200 Participants in the Pilot.

In his former position at Commonwealth Bank, the Business Plan Developer used purpose built Commonwealth Bank econometric models to -

(i)         rank and quantify 'Credit Default Probability' and 'Loss Upon Default' of 'Borrowers' based on inter alia the -
a)         risk rating of the counterparties;
b)         tenor of loan tranches;

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

            c)         >30 different risks including 'Credit', 'Market', 'Key Man', 'Operational', 'Reputation' and 'Sovereign Risk'; and

(ii)        Return On Capital Employed based on credit rating of the counterparties.

All major global banks use similar modelling software to measure risk and capital employed ratios.

Moody's, S&P and Fitch use comparable quant metrics in their risk measurement modelling. 

Back in 1989, the Business Plan Developer had a VO2 Max physical testing on a treadmill at Cumberland College, but that institution seems to have ceased that service.   NSWIS contains physiologists which measure and monitor the biological adaptations an athlete makes in their training program in endurance, speed, power, agility, flexibility, body composition and the ability to adapt to the environment.  Assessment includes heart rate, oxygen consumption, blood lactate, glucose levels and body temperature.

In August 2007, Dr Ted Arnold, performed a full physical examination on the Business Plan Developer at a Sydney medical practice, Executive Health Management, which use similar methodology to measure physical and mental health and ascribe a 'Current Biological Age'.  e-Research questions for Coping Skills in the Executive Health Management examination was developed in a Dealing With Stress module in Healthy By Choice created by Dianne Montague and Uté Cowley.  Perhaps one of Ted Arnold of EHM or Dianne Montague or Uté Cowley of Healthy By Choice -
*           may be interested in joining the Research Programme Team as one of the 'Clinicians'; or
*           engaged to develop the scope of measuring Coping Skills and Cognitive Development. 

Econtech is an independent economic consultancy which specialises in economic modelling for:
      industry economics, social policy, tax policy and economic forecasting.

Econtech produced "The cost of physical inactivity - Aug 2007" (commissioned by Medibank Private) which calculated the gross and net direct health costs of physical inactivity of the following seven medical conditions:

  1. Coronary heart (CHD)

  2. Breast cancer disease

  3. Colon cancer

  4. Stroke

  5. Depression

  6. Type 2 Diabetes

  7. Falls

Econtech's research revealed 17% of the total health cost of treating the above seven conditions can be attributed to physical inactivity amongst Australian adults (aged 18-75) – equating to $1.5 billion in direct Health Care Costs.

Section 3(l) "Returns on Investment in Public Health - An Epidemiological and Economic Analysis" extensively used econometric modelling to measure the economic return on health expenditure prepared by Applied Economics for the Population Health Division of the Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing in 1999.  The report not only showed reductions in cases of disease, but also evidenced significant, positive returns on health expenditure due to public health campaigns which addressed -

(i)          tobacco consumption,

(ii)         childhood immunisation,

(iii)        HIV/AIDS,

(iv)        road trauma; and

(v)         heart disease.

 

The report's findings were:

*          Between 1970 and 2000, measles notifications fell from 100,000 to 2,000 cases annually and subsidised immunisation for measles since 1970 has saved an estimated 95 lives and averted approximately four million cases between 1970 and 2003. The estimated net present value of measles programs has exceeded $8.4 billion for Government and $9.1 billion for society - a saving of $155 for every $1 spent on preventing measles since 1970.

*          The net benefits of reduced tobacco consumption as a result of the investment a range of public health measures were $8.4b.

*          In 1998 an estimated 17,400 premature deaths were averted because of reduced tobacco consumption. This included 6,900 fewer deaths from coronary heart diseases, 4000 fewer deaths from lung cancer, 3600 fewer deaths from bronchial conditions and 2900 deaths from stokes and other cancers averted.

*          Estimated total benefits of health improvement in 1998 alone, due to lower tobacco consumption from 1970 onwards, is $12.3 billion and smoking prevention programs have saved the Government $2 for every $1 spent over the past three decades.

"Returns on Investment in Public Health An Epidemiological and Economic Analysis" references a plethora of econometric modelling reports and journals.

With 20 years experience, Applied Economics has offices in Sydney and Canberra offering independent and objective advice to public and private sector clients on a diverse range of policy and business matters.  It has a number of senior consultants and two principals, Dr Peter Abelson and Dr Glenn Withers (presently CEO of Universities Australia) with extensive experience in advising the public and private sector on all aspects of economic policy development and practice.  Dr Abelson worked extensively on "Returns on Investment in Public Health An Epidemiological and Economic Analysis".

Quality-Adjusted Life Years or QALYs measures numbers of years lived and QOL during those years, using a sliding scale from zero (death) to one (perfect health).

Transfer To Utility is a technique devised by L Segal 'et al' for mapping health status onto a utility score to achieve a common metric for comparing the performance of disparate interventions in Australia across modalities and stages of disease (translate published trial outcomes into a health-related quality-of-life [utility] scale, creating a common metric which supported comparisons between disparate interventions) in the context of Depression, stroke and Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Life Expectancy Calculator identifies rudimentary, but important, indicators of 'Life Expectancy' and 'Biological Age'.

Compression Of Morbidity needs to be quantified with metrics.

Forecast Return On YELP Capex notes that the Discussion Paper cites a recent US study Prevention for a Healthier America that utilised modelling to estimate that for every US$1 invested in "proven community-based disease prevention programs" (ie. increasing physical activity, maintaining a Healthy Diet and reducing smoking levels), the return on investment over and above the $1 per head cost of the program would be US$5.60 within five years.  

The Head Consultant For Pilot And Two Research Programme is responsible -

(i)         that results in Return On YELP Capex Software (such results which will have to align with the End Of Primary Research Programme Progress Report produced by the Research Programme Team) are input into the Base Case Financial Model;

(ii)        to extrapolate from the Base Case Financial Model the Economic Return On YELP Capex and change in Cashflow resulting from fiscal allocations for Capex on Human Brownfield Infrastructure from Propagation directed at the Target Market and Target Age Groups for Rigorous and MREAs to achieve the Propagation Forecasts And Targets; and

(iii)        to provide 'Less Effective', 'Forecast' and 'More Effective' scenarios of the Economic Return On YELP Capex.

Using Return On YELP Capex Software to measure the effect of the Hypothesis on the 50 Volunteers is paramount to maximising the utility of the Pilot and Primary Research Programme. 

The YELP Holistic 'Hub' First Business Plan contends that the Forecast Return On YELP Capex for every dollar expended by the YELP  SPV within 5 years determined by testing the Hypothesis is at least tenfold over and above the YELP  SPV's  Capex and likely to increase in the main due to Climate Change.