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Base Case Financial Model means a financial model to assist the YELP  SPV analyse and assess the Adverse Costs of the Adverse Effects (Fifteen Problems) due to the Causes.

 

A financial model that contains many worksheets dynamically linked which deploy the following modelling protocols in a large Excel spreadsheet for a broad database of Australia's 22m Human Brownfield Infrastructure based on age groups, sex and state/territory -

(a)       simulates inter alia the Cashflows flowing from Materially Altered Lifestyle where the favourable impact on Adverse Costs of Fifteen Problems as quantified at Negligent Lifestyle Annual Costs exceed $155 billion annually; and

(b)       relies Return On YELP Capex Software and applies the Return On YELP Capex Formula to calculate the Economic Return On YELP Capex and associated future fiscal Capex requirements from implementing the Propagation 3rd Phase, which -

   (i)       is based on a set of best-estimate assumptions using existing economic, agricultural, physiological fundamentals (population, age distribution, existing Obesity/Overweight and exercise levels, fast-food consumption etc), known as a 'Base Case', founded on inputs for the Lifestyle Behaviour and Ascribed Economic Value of the forecast 5,200 Pilot Sample to produce a set of likely results which estimates 'inter alia' whether the YELP  SPV's projected Capex on Human Brownfield Infrastructure achieves -

               (I)         an IRR which is higher than the hurdle rate (required yield); and

              (II)        a positive NPV;

   (ii)      applies (i) above from the results of the Pilot and Primary Research Programme which are fed in from Return On YELP Capex Software;

   (iii)     applies a discount rate to factor in that due to long term inflation $1 in say five years time generally enjoys less purchasing power than $1 today;

   (iv)     will incorporate 'Scenario Testing' eg. 'Less Effective', 'Forecast' and 'More Effective' outcomes based on the forecast Materially Altered Lifestyle being less than, equal to or better than forecast in the 'Base Case' (ie. will the Pilot establish that the 5,200 Pilot Sample benefit less than, equal to or more than the 'Base Case') which can expeditiously display best & worst case extremes, feasibility and risks;

   (v)      will not initially incorporate 'Stress Testing' changes to the fundamentals (ie reduced water supply, increased food costs, higher energy costs, a disease outbreak or epidemic etc.) which impact the Ascribed Economic Value;

   (vi)     might incorporate some 'Sensitivity Testing' to identify the impact of changing one assumption, or perhaps a few linked assumptions and appraise if the model is realistic, as users will generally have a meaningful idea of the outcome when they alter a 'Sensitivity'; and

   (vii)    might incorporate some 'Probabilistic Stochastic Testing' using random numbers to simulate a large number of alternative scenarios that might transpire so as to calculate percentiles to get some idea of the probability of different outcomes on Materially Altered Lifestyle and Economic Return On YELP Capex.

Forecast Return On YELP Capex notes that the Discussion Paper cites a recent US study Prevention for a Healthier America that utilised modelling to estimate that for every US$1 invested in "proven community-based disease prevention programs" (ie. increasing physical activity, maintaining a Healthy Diet and reducing smoking levels), the return on investment over and above the $1 per head cost of the program would be US$5.60 within five years.  

Wikipedia says

Financial modelling is the task of building an abstract representation (a model) of a financial decision making situation. This is a mathematical model, such as a computer simulation, designed to represent (a simplified version of) the performance of a financial asset or a portfolio, of a business, a project, or any other form of financial investment.

Financial modelling is a general term that means different things to different users. For some, it means the development of a mathematical model to predict a fair equilibrium price for an asset. For others, it means the development of a mathematical model and the associated computer implementation to simulate scenarios of financial events, such as asset prices, market movements, portfolio returns and the like. Or it might mean the development of optimization models for managing and controlling the risk of a financial investment.

While there has been some debate in the industry as to the nature of financial modelling whether it is a tradecraft, such as welding, or a science, such as metallurgy, the task of financial modelling has been gaining acceptance and rigor over the years. Several scholarly books have been written on the topic, in addition to numerous scientific articles, and the definitive series Handbooks in Finance by Elsevier contains several volumes dealing with financial modelling issues.

There are non-spreadsheet software platforms available on which to build financial models. However, the vast proportion of the market is spreadsheet-based, and within this market Microsoft Excel now has by far the dominant position, having overtaken Lotus 1-2-3 in the 1990s.

See also definitions of Return On YELP Capex Software,  Forecast Return On YELP Capex and Section 18.

 

 

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