Log of Correspondence Second Business Plan  Detailed Summary Second Business Plan  Summary of Annexures Second Business Plan  Defined Terms Second Business Plan  

 

Base Case Financial Model means a large Excel spreadsheet containing many worksheets dynamically linked to simulate inter alia Materially Altered Lifestyle and the Economic Return On YELP Capex due to implementing the Propagation Phase and associated future fiscal Capex requirements, which -

(i)         is based on a set of best-estimate assumptions, known as a 'Base Case', founded on inputs for the Lifestyle Behaviour and Ascribed Economic Value of the Pilot Sample to produce a set of likely results;

(ii)        compares (i) above with the results of the Pilot and Primary Research Programme which are fed in from Return On YELP Capex Software;

(ii)        will incorporate 'Scenario Testing' eg. 'Less Effective', 'Forecast' and 'More Effective' outcomes based on the forecast Materially Altered Lifestyle being less than, equal to or better than forecast in the 'Base Case' (ie. will the Pilot establish that the 5,200 Pilot Sample will benefit less than, equal to or more than the 'Base Case') which can expeditiously display best & worst case extremes, feasibility and risks;

(iii)       will not incorporate 'Stress Testing' changes to the fundamentals (ie reduced water supply, increased food costs, higher energy costs, a disease outbreak or epidemic etc.) which impact the Ascribed Economic Value;

(iv)       might incorporate some 'Sensitivity Testing' to identify the impact of changing one assumption, or perhaps a few linked assumptions and appraise if the model is realistic as users will generally have a meaningful idea of the outcome when they alter a 'Sensitivity'; and

(v)        might incorporate some 'Probabilistic Stochastic Testing' using random numbers to simulate a large number of alternative scenarios that might transpire so as to calculate percentiles to get some idea of the probability of different outcomes on Materially Altered Lifestyle and Economic Return On YELP Capex.

Also read definition of Return On YELP Capex Software and Section 18.