2022 POPULATION STATEMENT - CENTRE FOR POPULATION

Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on Australia’s population, mostly due to international border restrictions limiting overseas migration. As a result, our population is now expected to be smaller and older than was estimated prior to the onset of the pandemic.

Over the past year, restrictions have eased and Australia is adjusting to living with COVID-19. The 2022 Population Statement details how Australia’s population growth is projected to recover and how it is expected to change over the next decade, reflecting longstanding demographic trends like population ageing.

Part 1 of the Statement explains how Australia’s estimated resident population is expected to grow from 25.7 million on 30 June 2021 to 29.9 million by 30 June 2033. This indicates a slight, but not full recovery from the pandemic. Annual population growth is forecast to increase from 0.1 per cent in 2020–21 to 1.4 per cent in 2022–23. Growth is then projected to gradually decline from 2024–25, reaching 1.2 per cent by 2032–33. Ageing will continue to present a demographic challenge for Australia, with the median age projected to increase from 38.4 years in 2020–21 to 40.1 years by 2032–33.

Overseas migration was particularly affected by COVID-19, with international travel restrictions resulting in a net outflow of 85,000 overseas migrants from Australia in 2020–21. With the easing of restrictions, overseas migration has returned quickly and is expected to recover to the pre‑pandemic trend of a net inflow of 235,000 people from 2022–23. However, the recovery in migration is not expected to fully offset the lost population growth during the pandemic, with Australia expected to remain smaller and older than would have otherwise been the case.

So far, COVID-19 has not had as large an impact on deaths in Australia as in many other developed countries. However, as COVID-19 infection rates increased in 2022, deaths from COVID-19 and other causes have also increased in Australia. This is expected to result in a short-term fall in life expectancy in 2021–22 and 2022–23, after which life expectancy is projected to improve at the same rate as was expected before the pandemic, reflecting uncertainty around the long-term impact of the pandemic on mortality.

COVID-19 has not had a significant impact on fertility rates, although it may have affected the timing of some conceptions in 2020–21. Fertility rates have been slowly declining over the past 60 years and this trend is expected to continue. The total fertility rate is projected to decline from 1.66 babies per woman in 2021–22 to 1.62 babies by 2030–31.

Part 2 of the Statement analyses population growth and changes within the states and territories (including at the capital city and rest-of-state level) over the past year. It also provides projections of future growth. The revisions to Australia’s population estimates using the 2021 Census data (known as rebasing) have revised growth patterns over the past 5 years, with the population of the two largest states revised downwards, and the population of smaller jurisdictions revised upwards.

States and territories are projected to return to the well-established patterns of population growth that were experienced pre-pandemic. Capital cities and regional areas are also projected to return to normal patterns of population growth as net overseas migration returns and internal migration returns to pre-pandemic patterns. Melbourne is projected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s largest city in 2031–32. South Australia and Tasmania are expected to continue to be older than other states, and rest-of-state areas (except for the rest of the Northern Territory) are expected to continue to be older than capital cities.

Part 3 details the assumptions applied to the projections in this Statement, which are consistent with the 2022-23 October Budget (see also Budget Paper 3, 2022–23 October Budget). Data for the projections used in the Statement can be found at population.gov.au.

Australia’s population grew by 0.1 per cent in 2020–21 to reach 25.7 million on 30 June 2021. As overseas migration returns, Australia’s population is expected to have grown by 1.1 per cent in 2021–22 to be 26.0 million on 30 June 2022 (Table 1). This growth is still significantly lower than before the pandemic. Between 2008–09 and 2018–19, Australia experienced average population growth of 1.6 per cent per year.

Australia’s annual population growth is expected to reach 1.4 per cent in 2022–23, before gradually slowing to 1.2 per cent by 2032–33. Australia’s population is expected to reach 29.9 million by 2032–33 (Table 1). The gradual decline in population growth results from assumptions that annual net overseas migration remains steady at 235,000 people over the medium term (so slowly declines as a proportion of the population) and the total fertility rate declines from 1.66 babies per woman in 2021–22 to 1.62 by 2030–31. In the longer-term, the population is projected to grow to 39.2 million by 2060–61.

The size of the population is expected to be 1.2 million people (4 per cent) smaller in 2030–31 compared with what was projected in the 2019–20 MYEFO, prior to the onset of the pandemic. Around 30 per cent of this difference is attributable to lower overseas migration. The remainder is the result of a lower fertility assumption, which was updated in early 2020 following research commissioned by the Centre for Population[1] and better reflects long‑running trends and fewer births attributable to migrants.

Australia’s population is expected to continue ageing, reflecting long-running trends of declining fertility and increasing life expectancies, with the median age increasing by 1.5 years between 2021–22 and 2032–33 (Table 1). This ageing trend was accelerated by the pandemic, with the projected median age in 2030–31 being 1.4 years older than what was projected pre-pandemic (39.8 years compared to 38.4 years).