Victoria cannot afford more Labor – AFR  - Nov 23, 2022

Sometimes a bad government, especially one headed in an even worse direction than the opposition, just needs to be thrown out of office.

Victorians literally cannot afford to give Labor premier Daniel Andrews another four years in charge of Australia’s second most-populous state when they finish voting on Saturday.

Victoria’s per capita household disposable income now sits second to last among states and territories, down from third-highest in the early 2000s. Victoria’s $116 billion net public debt has blown out to be the largest among states and territories amid the hangover of the world’s most punishing and prolonged pandemic lockdowns, and is forecast to grow by $50 billion more to reach a quarter of the state’s gross product by 2026.

The state is seemingly rushing back towards Cain/Kirner-style public finances. What’s needed is a Kennett-style pro-business, fiscally responsible agenda focused on growing the state out of its COVID-19 hangover, and out of deficit and debt.

But that is simply not part of the political DNA of Mr Andrews’ Socialist Left faction-controlled government, which has abandoned the moderation that was the hallmark of the governments of Labor predecessors Steve Bracks and John Brumby in favour of social progressivism and fiscal profligacy.

The Andrews government treats business not as a growth engine but as a cash cow to be hit with absurdities such as a mental health levy on payroll tax and property tax hikes. Along with Mr Andrews’ unnecessarily prolonged pandemic lockdowns, the skyrocketing debt is mostly the result of his government’s tripling of the state’s infrastructure budget.

Rising interest rates will now push up the cost of servicing a rapidly expanding debt which could put pressure on Victoria’s already downgraded AA credit rating. Mr Andrews’ signature Melbourne Suburban Rail Loop project – the cost of which the Victorian Parliamentary Budget Office warns could blow out to a staggering $125 billion – seeks to fill an infrastructure pipeline that maintains the construction jobs of CFMEU members.

The Andrews government could be leading Victoria not only deeper into debt but literally into the dark.

In return, the boss of the union’s law-breaking Victorian construction division, John Setka, organises fundraising lunches for Labor attended by Treasurer Tim Pallas. The Andrews government’s consorting with the CFMEU and tolerance of the thuggish Mr Setka’s continuing political and industrial power is a disgrace.

After the branch-stacking scandal involving former MP Adem Somyurek, Labor’s Right faction-aligned Mr Pallas appears unable to impose any fiscal discipline to check Mr Andrews’ big spending, such as the campaign promises to build a spate of new hospitals to supposedly solve Victoria’s triple-zero ambulance crisis.

After eight years in power, ideology is bubbling up as the Andrews government moves to partly renationalise Victoria’s energy system. The premier’s promise that reversing electricity privatisation by re-establishing the State Electricity Commission will lower power prices is wishful and nostalgic thinking about a cheap, easy and faster transition to renewables. The revived SEC is actually an investment vehicle for wind and solar generation; but will private equity put money into a politically controlled entity?

Meanwhile, the Andrews government’s extreme anti-fossil fuel rejection of gas-fired firming generation has delayed moves to implement a capacity mechanism for the National Electricity Market that the energy technocrats say is critical to keeping the lights on. With the Energy Security Board warning that Victoria faces winter-time renewables droughts in the early 2030s, the Andrews government could be leading Victoria not only deeper into debt but literally into the dark.

While resource states Western Australia and Queensland overtake Victoria on the living standards tables, the Andrews government’s ban on developing Victoria’s natural gas resources has helped to push up power prices for the state’s manufacturers. The premier now politically weaponises the opposition’s support for gas as a key energy transition fuel by attacking it as “fracking”.

The divisive Mr Andrews remains the dominant figure in Victoria, astride a tightly controlled political machine that brazenly shrugs off the 2014 “red shirts” election funding rorts and a reported four current probes by Victoria’s anti-corruption watchdog.

Liberal Party’s woes

Integrity questions, along with dubious economic management, should be fertile ground for the opposition. Yet, having been out of government for 19 of the past 23 years, the Victorian Liberal Party’s struggle to attract talent into its ranks – especially talented women – is symbolised by recycling Matthew Guy as leader. The Liberals’ structural problems – inner-city erosion on the left by the teal independents, and outer-suburban branches infiltrated by the religious right – means it has struggled to present itself as a credible, centrist alternative that is ready to govern.

But sometimes a bad government, especially one headed in an even worse direction, just needs to be thrown out of office.